1 “Ukraine Refugee Situation,” UNHCR (2022) as of April 18th 2022
2 “Ukraine Supplemental Appropriations Act, 2022,” US government website (2022.); “Visualizing the $13.6 billion in US Spending on Ukraine,” The New York Times (2022).
3 “War in Ukraine: MEPs Unlock Emergency Funds for Refugees,” European Parliament (2022).
4 “Russia Ukraine Crisis Overview,” Accenture (2022); “Global Incident Report: Russia-Ukraine Crisis March 25,” Accenture (2022); “Global Indirect Report: Threat Actors Divide Along Ideological Lines over the Russia-Ukraine Conflict on Underground Forums,” Accenture (2022).
5 “White House tells CEOs that Russian Cyber Attack on US is ‘coming’,” Financial Times (2022).
6 “Over 600 Companies Have withdrawn from Russia—but Some Remain,” Yale School of Management (2022); “Russia’s war is creating corporate winners and losers,” The Economist (2022).
7 Accenture Research analysis of Interos and FactSet. 2,100+ US companies and 1,200+ EU companies have Tier 1 suppliers in Russia. Those numbers expand sharply when considering sub-contractors: 190,000+ US companies and 109,000+ EU companies have Tier 2 and 3 suppliers in Russia.
8 Estimates from Morgan Stanley, Barclays, Goldman Sachs, BNP Paribas, Credit Suisse and J.P. Morgan 2022 GDP & Inflation Outlooks, as well as the OECD, IMF, and European Commission. Data as of 21st March 2022.
9 Oxford Economics’ Global Economics Database. Pre-conflict refers to forecast as of December 2022.
10 “A 10-Point Plan to Reduce the European Union’s Reliance on Russian Natural Gas,” International Energy Agency (2022); “Russian supplies to global energy markets”, International Energy Agency (2022). “Russia’s war is creating corporate winners and losers,” The Economist (2022).
11 “2021/22 Grain Trade in Flux Amid Russia-Ukraine Conflict,” US Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service (2022).
12 Accenture Research analysis of University of Michigan Consumer Survey for US; and Consumer Sentiment Survey for EU.
13 See, for example: Adam S. Posen, “The end of globalization?,” Foreign Affairs (2022); Martin Wolf, “Russia’s war will remake the world,” Financial Times (2022); Josh Zumbrun, “Economic blacklist of Russia marks new blow for globalization,” The Wall Street Journal (2022).
14 The World Bank database
15 Accenture Research analysis of Global Trade Alert database, accessible at: https://www.globaltradealert.org/. Data is adjusted for reporting lags, with industrial policy interventions including: export supports, import curbs, licensing, quotas, subsidies and tariffs.
16 “DG Okonjo-Iweala tells sustainability conference “trade is part of the solution to challenges we face,” World Trade Organization (2022).
17 See, for example: Vigya Sharma, “This is how the conflict between Ukraine and Russia could impact climate change,” The World Economic Forum (2022); Leslie Hook and Neil Hume, “Will the Ukraine war derail the green energy transition?,” Financial Times (2022); Patricia Cohen and Stanley Reed, “Will war make Europe’s switch to clean energy even harder?,” The New York Times (2022).
18 See, for example: Arne Delfs and Carolynn Look, “Germany slashes fuel tax in $16.5 billion energy package,” Bloomberg (2022). “Maryland, Georgia pause gas taxes with prices near record highs,” The Wall Street Journal (2022). Chiara Albanese and Alberto Brambilla, “Italy could revive coal plants to break Russia energy dependence,” Bloomberg (2022).
19 See, for example: “Netherlands ramps up plan for doubling offshore wind capacity by 2020,” Reuters (2022); “The Med gets first offshore wind farm as Italy vows energy revolution,” France 24 (2022); “Germany to speed renewables push due to Ukraine crisis,” Reuters (2022).
20 Based on mapping Oxford Economics’ World Economic Prospects estimates to our scenarios. Data as of 8th April 2022. Pre-conflict refers to forecast as of Jan 2022.
21 Based on mapping Oxford Economics’ World Economic Prospects estimates to our scenarios. Data as of 8th April 2022. Pre-conflict refers to forecast as of Jan 2022.
22 “Ukraine Invasion May Lead to Worldwide Food Crisis, Warns UN,” The Guardian (2022).
23 Accenture Research analysis of OECD World Input Output tables.
24 Accenture Research analysis of OECD World Input Output tables.
25 “Europe’s Automakers Scramble to Replace Ukrainian Auto Parts,” Automotive News (2022).
26 “Business Futures: Signals of Change,” Accenture (2021).
27 “State of Cybersecurity Resilience 2021: How aligning security and the business creates cyber resilience,” Accenture (2021).
28 “Accenture and MIT Team to Create a Supply Chain Resilience Stress Test,” Accenture (2020).
29 “Business Futures: Signals of Change,” Accenture (2021).
