Top banking trends for 2026
Unconstrained banking is here. Generative and agentic AI, digital assets and new business models are accelerating decisions and enabling banks to do more than ever. Download report.
Six trends are rewriting banking’s future—where possibilities are no longer bound by barriers.
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01. Money
01. MoneyThe future of money is being re-engineered—how it works, moves and creates value.
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02. Experience
02. ExperienceBanking experiences are becoming conversational, adaptive and everywhere customers are.
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03. Work and Talent
03. Work and TalentThe “10× bank”—where one person manages an AI team to deliver exponential impact—is coming into focus.
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04. Technology
04. TechnologyThe future of technology is moving from keeping systems alive to powering growth.
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05. Risk and Regulation
05. Risk and RegulationRisk is becoming everyone’s business, enabled by continuous, embedded and real-time visibility.
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06. Competition
06. CompetitionBanks’ traditional edge, the balance sheets of deposits and loans driving about two-thirds of revenue, is under siege.
Dumb money gets smarter
The future of money is being re-engineered—how it works, moves and creates value.
The big picture
Digital currencies are reshaping how money is stored, moved and used—changing how it works for banks and customers. Banks must shift from adopting new forms of money to building smarter, faster and more connected ways to move it.
What’s going on
Digital currencies, including stablecoins, central bank digital currencies and tokenized deposits, are moving into the mainstream, reshaping where and how money flows. At the same time, interoperable rails and programmable payments are making money more intelligent. The next evolution is agentic money that can act on its own, executing payments and optimizing liquidity without human intervention.
What’s at stake
These shifts represent both a risk and an opportunity for banks. Digital currencies could push payments and revenue outside traditional banking, while smarter transactions could place banks at the center of a new revolution.
$13 trillion
in transaction value could shift to alternative payment methods by 2030, putting an estimated $13 billion in payment fees at risk.
76%
of financial institutions report they still have work to do to enable smart money.
57%
of business leaders believe agentic commerce will become mainstream within the next three years.
What to do
Banking everywhere it matters
Banking experiences are becoming conversational, adaptive and everywhere customers are.
The big picture
AI and GPT-powered interfaces are transforming banking, raising customer expectations beyond basic transactions. Customers expect fluid and adaptive experiences across digital and physical channels. To deliver, banks must modernize core systems and build GPTs that deliver real-time, context-aware interactions. Physical branches will remain essential as trust anchors, but their role will evolve. Success lies in blending AI-driven convenience with the enduring value of human connection.
What’s going on
The future of banking hinges on three trends: customers increasingly trust AI, especially GPT-like assistants, but want control; AI is moving into wearables for seamless, real-time support; and physical branches remain vital for complex tasks, blending human connection with AI-driven convenience.
What’s at stake
Banks’ ownership of the customer experience layers (the brand, channel, interface and execution), is under pressure. AI expands options when experiences start outside the bank, plus compresses banks’ control as customers switch between non-bank and bank channels. As gen AI makes it easier to compare and switch between banking products, a wave of innovation could accelerate disruption, pushing banks into narrower roles unless they reinvent across experience layers.
65%
of respondents are open to using a GPT-like financial assistant offered through a gen AI platform or a digital wallet.
71%
of respondents would welcome an AI assistant in their primary bank’s mobile app.
76%
of respondents would use micro branches or smart booths, showing a clear demand for innovative physical formats.
What to do
Agentic AI shatters traditional capacity barriers
The “10× bank”—where one person manages an AI team to deliver exponential impact—is coming into focus.
The big picture
AI is transforming how banks operate, serve customers and build software. Capacity no longer depends on headcount—banks can now amplify impact with small teams directing digital co-workers. The future of work is about designing roles, workflows and cultures where humans and machines achieve more together.
What’s going on
AI is redefining human capacity. Growth will no longer be constrained by how many people a bank can hire. Yet success depends on putting people at the center of change. Executives must empower employees to reimagine workflows and co-design intuitive human and AI interactions that elevate work rather than replace it.
What’s at stake
AI is breaking capacity limits—but not every bank is ready. What’s needed: clear vision and governance to avoid fragmented adoption, worker confusion and systems that don’t work together for the enterprise or for customers. Banks that embrace AI responsibly will unlock new value, accelerate growth and strengthen trust.
$289 billion
in potential benefits from scaled gen AI adoption over the next three years based on our analysis across the top 200 global banks.
2.5x
higher ROI from CEO-sponsored, purpose-driven AI programs compared to AI efforts lacking clear vision and leadership support.
57%
of banking IT executives expect broad or fully embedded AI agent adoption in risk, compliance and fraud detection within three years.
What to do
The high cost of low cost
The future of technology is moving from keeping systems alive to powering growth.
The big picture
Years of underinvestment have left banks burdened with tech debt and rising costs, as spending prioritized maintaining outdated systems. With technology costs growing about four times faster than revenue, this model is unsustainable. AI offers a path to modernization, transforming legacy weaknesses into engines of growth.
What’s going on
Banks have long seen modernization as the solution, but cost and complexity held them back. That’s changing. AI-driven development, composable architectures and open-source adoption are lowering these barriers. This simplification enables resilient, multi-cloud applications, while governance layers ensure control and security as AI agents proliferate.
What’s at stake
Decisions made today will determine whether banks lead or fall behind. Legacy systems mean rising costs, slower innovation and greater risk. Modernizing architecture unlocks agility, resilience and growth, but success also requires equipping the workforce with the right skills, governance and capabilities to thrive in an AI-driven future.
~ 70%
of IT budget are being consumed just by maintenance of technical debt.
8%
average growth in software costs a year since 2017, outpacing banking revenue growth.
~ 1/3
efficiency gains expected across key software development life cycle activities in the next three years.
What to do
Seeing the big picture beyond the pixels
Risk is becoming everyone’s business, enabled by continuous, embedded and real-time visibility.
The big picture
As specialization grows, risk management is becoming fragmented, creating blind spots that threaten banks. To lead, banks must shift from managing risk to mastering it—treating risk as an integrated capability across the ecosystem. Viewed this way, risk becomes a source of insight, agility and decisive action in a complex landscape.
What’s going on
Risk is everywhere—and accelerating. It’s no longer just a concern of risk teams; it’s everyone’s responsibility. Yet siloed structures and fragmented views limit visibility, while hidden vulnerabilities in complex software supply chains add further risk. The rapid pace of emerging threats demands a more integrated, real-time approach.
What’s at stake
Risk management design goes beyond technology—it drives performance and resilience. Despite heavy investment, failures still lead to losses and penalties. Modernizing risk is now a strategic imperative, shaping capital allocation and transformation. Banks that build speed and foresight will lead the next era of risk leadership.
$60B
spent in 2024 on IT systems supporting risk management, according to Celent.
81%
of risk executives expect that risks their organizations face will become more interconnected over the next two years.
Only 38%
of risk executives say they are satisfied with the ability of the wider business to adopt a risk mindset.
What to do
The battle for the balance sheet intensifies
Banks’ traditional edge, the balance sheets of deposits and loans driving about two-thirds of revenue, is under siege.
The big picture
The banking industry’s strong position is shifting. Fintechs, stablecoins and private credit are targeting core banking products, while customers gain more control over their money. Banks must rethink balance sheet management, move from product silos to integrated offerings and forge new partnerships. Leaders will be those who adapt quickly to this evolving landscape.
What’s going on
Competition for the balance sheet is intensifying as new entrants pull deposits and loans from traditional banks. Fintechs such as Robinhood are expanding into home lending while stablecoins create a parallel system for storing money, threatening funding and lending. Agentic AI allows customers to optimize deposits and loans with zero effort, accelerating the shift of funds. As a result, banks must reprice products to defend liquidity, putting profitability at risk.
What’s at stake
The speed and scale of disruption mean traditional approaches to deposit and loan management are no longer sufficient. The real risk isn’t just lost market share—it’s a fundamental shift in how value is created and captured in banking. To thrive, banks must move beyond incremental change, making bold decisions and embracing new models that position them for long-term relevance.
>$200T
in deposits and loans are under pressure.
22%
of US banks' pre-tax income could be at risk from relatively small disruption to loan and deposit rates.
2/3
of global banking revenues are net interest income.