April data suggests major economies have not been significantly derailed by recent financial stress, but remain on a slowing growth path.
As the post-pandemic tailwind to services spending dissipates, it seems more likely that services sector growth will downshift to match the weakness in industrial activity, rather than the other way around—this convergence will likely mark the onset of recession.
An energy-led drop in headline inflation globally in March was a positive development, but is already a lagging inflation signal as oil prices rebounded forcefully in April amidst OPEC supply cuts; core inflation also remains elevated and sticky in the US and Europe.
In the background of these cyclical dynamics, the recalibration of government policies to changing geopolitical and technology realities continues to reshape the business landscape —recent measures include export restrictions, green investment subsidies and regulations on AI.