After months of adapting to the pandemic, some new consumer habits may become permanently entrenched. As individuals continue to avoid restaurants, gyms, and other public spaces, we estimate more than US$2 trillion of annual value may shift from sectors such as restaurants, retail, and commercial real estate.
For example, demand for office space has already declined sharply. This is driving second-order effects for shops and eateries that rely on office workers, as well as for companies that manage corporate real estate. Retail and leisure sectors are seeing value redistributed too, as consumers increasingly switch to eCommerce and digital entertainment options.
Consumers will still spend money on food, recreation, and entertainment. Where and how they spend it will highlight which companies are best prepared to capture consumers’ future share of wallet.