STRATEGY & CONSULTING
Forward-Looking Macroeconomic Insights
The foresight you need to anticipate change and understand how major global macroeconomic shifts impact your corporate strategy.
August 21, 2023
Overview
Business leaders need data-driven insights to continuously steer their companies along the path to growth.
We offer strategic advice to inform C-suite strategic planning, corporate development, customer strategy and M&A. Our goal is to translate complicated trends into simple, pragmatic recommendations for our clients.
We provide detailed business insights on key economic trends, such as how consumer behavior is changing, corporate finance developments and risk analysis. We help senior executives assess economic risks and monitor key trends, as well as support business-critical modeling and analysis.
We have hubs in the US, Europe and Asia and work across a wide range of industries to help businesses address the most important macroeconomic challenges for their sector. And our macro-analysis helps clients to carry out scenario and impact analysis, track industry value shifts and understand supply chain exposures.
How we work
In the Spotlight
After decades of cheap liquidity combined with low and stable inflation, the global economy is moving into a new era where supply scarcity is set to become the main driver of economic outcomes.
This Great Supply Squeeze will create profound business challenges, including margin erosion from higher structural cost pressures, growing volatility of input prices, intensifying financial and market valuation pressures, and increasingly complex supply chain management. But it will also present opportunities for companies who can successfully navigate this new normal to gain a competitive edge.
Previous POVS
Executive Summary
Last year we witnessed an upward trend of activist campaigns, with a growth of over a third compared to 2021. The challenging global macro environment—characterized by rising inflation, high interest rates and geopolitical tension—has made it more attractive for activists to target companies with room for improved returns. Additionally, these investors hold significant capital, which provides them with resources to deploy.
While activist investors may focus on the goal of creating long-term value, their intrusion may be disruptive to the business. These investors use a variety of tactics to pressure management and force them to make changes.
To protect their companies from being targets, management teams should adopt an activist mindset and proactively assess vulnerabilities. Regular reviews of business performance, operations and strategy are essential—especially in a challenging economic environment.
Executive summary
Carbon is now a mainstream topic in boardroom agendas. Leaders worldwide have set ambitious emission-reduction targets, responding to pressures from investors, customers, governments and a tightening regulatory landscape. But climate economics are complex, and although the imperative for climate action is clear, the cost of inaction is uncertain.
What is evident is that, as solutions for decarbonization evolve, carbon markets will play a critical role to balance a net zero system. Managing carbon exposure will be a key consideration for all corporations during capital allocation decisions, in the development of new business, and for managing corporate risk.
Voluntary carbon markets (VCMs) are growing fast, and as they become a critical tool to achieve net zero, an ecosystem of new participants, products, regulations and standards is forming. As such, companies need a basic understanding of VCMs, what they may mean, what role they play, and what capabilities they require.
Executive Summary
In 2022, the re-opening of economies created a consumer spending impetus that hit up against a high cost-of-living crisis. Consumers pushed through headwinds by drawing on savings accumulated during the pandemic, trading down to budget products, and cutting back spending on big-ticket durables. This allowed spending to remain mostly resilient, especially in the US. But this year, the consumer cycle will likely reach an inflection point. People are facing persistent inflation and high interest rates, increasing household wealth erosion from falling asset prices, and growing income and employment uncertainty. A significant slowing of consumer spending is likely, with high risk of whiplash and cliff effects. What does this mean for consumer-facing businesses?
Monthly briefs
Our monthly briefs summarize key global macroeconomic developments and are intended to inform executive teams, boards and investors on the state of the economy.
July Macro Brief: Normalizing labor markets
The global economy is on a path to moderation, with signs of disinflation, a slow recovery in manufacturing, and a decrease in consumer spending. Central banks are starting to lower interest rates, but they'll remain above pre-pandemic levels. Labor markets are stabilizing but remain tight, with slow wage growth, particularly in advanced economies due to demographic challenges.
Global economic sentiment is vulnerable with high uncertainty surrounding potential policy changes. Political uncertainties could weaken business confidence and investment, and could restrain global growth later this year.
Businesses should prepare for continued high labor costs and challenges in global labor sourcing due to geopolitical restrictions. Emphasizing domestic labor productivity improvements, including the use of GenAI, will be essential to managing talent shortages and controlling labor expenses effectively.
Previous Briefs
Additional content
Meet the team
Chris Tomsovic
Managing Director Global Lead – Macro Foresight Accenture Strategy
Nick Kojucharov
Principal Director – Accenture Strategy, Macro Foresight North America Lead