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Momentum returns: 3 forces shaping M&A in 2026
5-Minute read
December 1, 2025
After several years of volatility and “green shoots” that never quite blossomed, 2026 is shaping up to be a turning point for global M&A.
Dealmakers who have spent the past few years watching from the sidelines are now re-engaging—but the landscape they’re returning to is not the same. The macroeconomic, regulatory and technological environment has evolved in fundamental ways, and the companies that act decisively now will define the next cycle of corporate transformation.
In our work with global clients and conversations with countless dealmakers, we see three major forces driving M&A in 2026.
01
A more nuanced macroeconomic and regulatory backdrop
The global economy as we enter 2026 is more resilient than it looks on the surface.
While uncertainty remains—particularly around trade relations and geopolitical alignment—inflation is projected to continue to decline globally and recession fears have eased.
Financing conditions are also improving. Interest rates have peaked, debt markets are reopening and the cost of capital is becoming predictable again. This combination of stability and clarity is restoring corporate confidence in large-scale transactions. However, geopolitical shifts and trade policy realignments continue to create friction. Supply chains are being regionalized and the rules of global trade are increasingly influenced by national interest. For multinationals, this means cross-border deals remain complex but strategic—essential for securing future growth but demanding careful navigation.
Regulation, too, is entering a more pragmatic phase. Both in the US and Europe, enforcement remains firm but less ideological than in the early 2020s. Agencies are showing greater willingness to weigh competitive benefits and innovation potential alongside traditional antitrust concerns. As a result, large transactions are once again possible—provided they demonstrate clear economic and consumer benefit.
For cross-border deals, however, nationalism remains the wildcard. Governments have become more assertive in defining “strategic industries”—from chips to critical minerals—complicating cross-border investment flows. Companies are redesigning global supply chains to accommodate shifting trade alliances and regional blocs. This makes international M&A more complex, but also more strategically valuable: the ability to secure resilient footprints and diversified access to growth markets has never been more critical.
Despite the friction, the prevailing mood among dealmakers is one of measured optimism. Interest rates are stabilizing and private capital remains abundant. Global dry powder in private equity alone stands above $2.5 trillion. While this is not a return to the pre-2020 “open season” for consolidation, the pendulum has swung back toward balance. The world’s largest companies can pursue transformative deals with greater predictability—and with renewed confidence that thoughtful strategy can win regulatory support.
02
Portfolio readjustments and the big corporate breakup
If the macro backdrop defines the playing field, portfolio strategy is now the game.
Large corporations are reevaluating what truly belongs in their portfolios. This “age of focus” is producing a surge of spin-offs, carve-outs and divestitures.
One of the clearest signals in the market is the surge in portfolio restructuring. According to S&P CapitalIQ data, divestitures were up by 31% in Q1–Q3 of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024.
Large multinationals are actively reshaping themselves to compete in a more complex global economy. The focus is on simplification and sharpening strategic identity, for example by divesting non-core businesses and re-investing in growth, or by splitting into a growth business and a manage-for-profit business. Unlike past waves of divestitures that were defensive or crisis-driven, the current trend is strategic. Management teams are asking: Which businesses truly define our future?
Breaking up large, diversified conglomerates into more tightly aligned business units reduces complexity, releases management bandwidth and often generates higher valuation multiples. Regulators have also made these moves more feasible. Divestitures are typically less exposed to antitrust challenge than large mergers, creating a smoother path to execution.
This wave of “big breakups” is not about weakness symptom of weakness—it’s about readiness. Global supply disruptions, technological reinvention and activist pressure are forcing companies to rethink how they grow. The result is an M&A environment characterized by larger, bolder moves as firms adapt to structural change and re-architect their business portfolios for the next decade.
03
Gen AI’s dual impact: Macro catalyst and deal accelerator
No discussion of 2026 would be complete without addressing generative and agentic AI—both as a macroeconomic force and as a transformative capability within M&A itself.
AI as a macro catalyst
At the macro level, generative AI is already reshaping productivity, labor markets and capital allocation. Accenture research projects that $10.3 trillion in additional economic value can be unlocked by 2038 just by companies adopting generative AI at scale. For dealmakers, that creates both headwinds and tailwinds.
Capital is flowing into AI infrastructure—from semiconductors and data centers to model orchestration platforms—driving a surge in infrastructure and capability-driven M&A. AI-related companies accounted for 64% of all venture deals in the US for Q1–Q3 of 2025, according to PitchBook data, and is an important catalyst for growth in megadeals globally. Expect that to accelerate in 2026 as companies seek to secure capabilities, data assets and specialized talent.
Yet the broader impact of AI extends beyond deal rationales. While AI boosts efficiency, it can also alter consumer spending patterns and long-term growth trajectories. The result? M&A strategies must increasingly account for both AI-driven growth and AI-induced dislocation across industries.
AI as a deal accelerator
Beyond its macro implications, AI is transforming how M&A itself is executed. The introduction of intelligent, autonomous, agentic AI systems is fundamentally changing the pace and precision of dealmaking.
Crucially, AI’s potential is not limited to efficiency. It also empowers strategic insight. Intelligent agents can model market scenarios, identify acquisition targets that align with future growth themes and simulate integration pathways based on real-time data. This evolution is fundamentally changing M&A—enabling deal teams to complete diligence faster, identify synergies with greater accuracy and accelerate value capture.
In the diligence phase, AI is steadily becoming table stakes—scanning thousands of documents and datasets in hours, flagging red-flag risks or hidden patterns that would take human teams weeks to uncover. As agentic AI evolves, the capabilities are now being extended into execution—mapping legacy systems, reconciling contracts and supporting integration activities.
For M&A professionals, this marks a shift from AI-enabled analysis to AI-driven orchestration. It will shorten deal cycles, reduce execution risk and improve post-merger outcomes. Within the next 1-2 years, these capabilities will move from experimentation to expectation—the new baseline for high-performance deal teams.
The opportunity ahead
Looking ahead, the M&A market of 2026 is poised for a return to healthy activity—but with a different character than in past cycles. The winners will be those who move decisively, but with clarity of purpose.
The companies that thrive will be those that:
- Navigate complexity with confidence—backed by data and insight. The global environment will remain fluid. Success will depend on building resilience and maintaining agility across markets.
- Actively reshape their portfolios to align with future value pools. Simplification is strength. Leading companies are concentrating their resources on the businesses that define competitive advantage and divesting the rest.
- Embrace AI as a transformation engine. Generative AI is no longer optional infrastructure—it’s central to both corporate performance and the dealmaking process itself.
The M&A market is in a better place than it’s been in years. The winners are already moving. For leaders willing to act boldly—but thoughtfully—2026 may well be remembered as the year that marked the next great reset in global M&A.
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