The current state of air cargo market dynamics

In brief

• Asia Pacific and Middle Eastern trade lanes drive year-to-date international air trade growth
  
  
• Low-value air export out of China skyrockets on global markets on year-to-date level
  
  
• All of which is being reflected in Asia Pacific’s strong inbound and outbound air capacity performance 

The evolution of air cargo capacity and global trade

The logistics and air cargo industry is highly dynamic, constantly shaped by evolving market conditions, technological advancements, and shifting consumer demands. Global trade patterns, economic fluctuations, and regulatory changes can dramatically alter the landscape, requiring industry players to adapt quickly. The rise of e-commerce, for example, has led to increased demand for faster and more efficient delivery services, while geopolitical events or disruptions in supply chains can necessitate rapid strategic pivots. As a result, industry players must remain agile, leveraging innovation and flexible strategies to navigate these changes and maintain their competitive edge.

Those who can swiftly adapt to new market realities are better positioned to meet customer expectations, optimize operations, and drive long-term success. With our comprehensive, reliable and up-to-date demand and supply databases, our travel industry practice is able to provide insights and data on global air cargo capacity, express and ocean freight demand and capacity on a regular basis.

Note: International air trade only; All flows indicate region-to-region air trade; Regions indicated by color; Air trade excluding low value cross-border e-commerce; Source: Accenture Cargo Global Air Trade database, Accenture analysis (September 2024);

Most major trade lanes show a positive year-to-date growth, driven by Asia Pacific and Middle East

Transatlantic air trade shows a noticeable decline compares to all other major trade lanes. 

Global Air Trade growth has increased of +4%.

Notes: 1) Other includes live animals, special handling (valuables, art, dangerous goods), and waste products; 2) Selected sub industries shown; Figures compare air trade demand in January-June 2024 VS. January-June 2023; Air trade excluding low value cross-border e-commerce. Source: Accenture Cargo Global Air Trade database, Accenture analysis (September 2024).

Fashion and raw materials air trade grew over +100k tonnes each in the first half of 2024 (vs last year)

While fashion and raw materials air trade growth has increased of +19% and +8% respectively, capital equipment, high technology and automotive air trade experience a consistent downturn

Notes: Direct international flights only; Flows indicate region-to-region capacity; regions indicated by shades of grey; Total air cargo capacity includes widebody passenger and all freighter flights; 1) August 12th – September 1st 2024, compared to August 12th – September 1st 2019; Source: Accenture Cargo Capacity Tracking Database, Accenture Cargo analysis (September 2024). 

Global International air cargo capacity up by 8% vs. 2019 in the last 4 weeks

Asia Pacific continues its strong performance inbound and outbound barring routes into Europe over the last 4 weeks compared to 2019.

Notes: Direct International air cargo capacity only; All freighters and widebody passenger aircraft only; 1) September 2024 data up to September 1st; 2) Comparing the weeks of August 12th – September 1st 2024 to the same weeks in 2019; 3) Comparing the last four weeks available versus the previous four weeks; Q1 drops visible in the graph are linked to Chinese New Year. Source: Accenture Cargo Capacity Tracking Database, Accenture Cargo Analysis (September 2024).

Over the last 4 weeks, global international air cargo capacity remained stable compared to the 4 weeks prior

Integrator freighters are driving capacity growth with a +36% increase compared to the same period in 2019.