Management decisions are driven by the need to be prepared for the future. An important preparation tool is the predictive business model. Assisted by the sophisticated spreadsheet software available today and supported by the strong analysis of historical data and isolation of key independent variables, the predictive business model is critical to modern managers and senior executives for good decision making.
Consider the current US retail market compared to that before the turn of the century. In particular, the entrance of new retailers that leveraged e-commerce technologies radically changed the retail scene. Many of these retailers have a brand that relies on technology and the data analysis such technology provides to deliver on consumer needs and expectations. As these large retailers entered and gradually came to dominate the retail market, their business practices and rapid growth put pressure on established traditional retailers. For example, many traditional retailers were already household names and heavily utilized catalogs to market to their customers. However, as business practices changed and traditional retailers failed to adjust, many of these companies and their practices became outdated and trapped in time.
Had managers of traditional retailers monitored market trends and examined their own historical performance, they would have recognized the role that price, store format, and convenience came to play in the market. Indeed, traditional retail managers failed to model the activity in their own primary market and correctly identify market changes, as well as the business driver called the American consumer.
Can you identify what analytical techniques are helpful for examining historical data? Can you identify equations, trends, and baseline assumptions derived from solid historical analysis and use them in a predictive business model to help improve decisions? How should management use what-if scenarios in decision making? How should the predictive business model be tested for internal consistency?
In the Accenture Academy courses Common Analytical Techniques in Predictive Business Modeling, Using What-If Scenarios in Predictive Business Modeling, and Testing and Presenting Predictive Modeling Results, you will discover the best tool—the predictive business model—for management decision making.
Accenture Academy offers proven, cost-effective learning solutions for a more versatile workforce and a more agile organization. We provide a flexible learning approach that helps your people be more versatile and your entire organization be more agile in the marketplace. Curriculum includes Supply Chain Management, Finance, Procurement, Analytics, Leadership & Management and Specialty Skills.