The key questions quickly become: Which are the optimal growth models to pursue? What are the appropriate products and/or services to offer alongside existing ones, and how should they be bundled? The ideal path forward for energy companies will naturally depend on market and business context as well as target customer segment characteristics, but will likely reflect a mix of eMobility and DER business models, with potential for both Lease/Rent and Buy approaches.
eMobility pure-play services
The value opportunity for eMobility is projected at approximately €5 billion in 2030 for the six countries we assessed. We estimate that more than 40% of this value will be in home and fleet charging for B2B and B2C applications. Nearly 30% of the total value is projected to come from the sale of additional electricity needed to meet the demands of the growing number of EVs. Value opportunities also come from charging on the go, roaming charging and demand-side flexibility.
Distributed energy resources pure-play services
In 2030, value opportunities for DER business models are projected to represent approximately €3 billion for the six countries we assessed. These business models can be considered “by technology,” or alternatively “by service.”
By technology, the DER opportunity can be viewed in two key categories: rooftop solar and battery storage, and electrified heating. By service, about three-quarters of projected value is associated with the Lease/Rent asset ownership approach—subscription services primarily for standalone rooftop solar and rooftop solar + storage models.
Standalone rooftop solar contributes 54% of the total EBITDA market for DERs in 2030, and rooftop solar + storage represents most of the remaining potential (45%), with only limited opportunity from electrified heating.
Bundling for greater benefit
Bundling across multiple business models could offer value greater than the sum of its parts. We see great untapped potential for energy companies here. The opportunity for energy companies to offer true end-to-end bundles could represent a strong differentiating factor against other entrants competing in the energy services space.