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アクセンチュア・デジタルグリッド調査 2014年

エネルギー需要のかつてない変化をいかに乗り切るか。新エネルギー技術の影響で、公益事業者は2025年までに15%を超える需要の減少に直面すると予測されます。

概要

最新のアクセンチュアの調査によると、新しいエネルギー技術がエネルギー需要にかつてない変化をもたらし、米国では2025年までに年間180億ドル~480億ドルの減収、ヨーロッパでは年間390億ユーロから610億ユーロの減収になると予想されています。

このような状況に直面し、公益事業者の経営幹部はデジタルグリッドへの移行に対してこれまで以上の大きなプレッシャーを感じているようです。

アクセンチュアは、これは減収の危機ではなく、費用対効果のより高い最適化された系統を確立する機会だと考えています。適切な計画の策定や効果的なモニタリングと制御によって、公益事業者はバランスよく投資ができるからです。

エネルギー需要のかつてない変化を引き起こす新しいエネルギー技術の例:

  • エネルギーの節約とデマンドレスポンス

  • 断熱性と効率性の高い家電製品による省エネルギー

  • 電気自動車や暖房の電化などのエネルギー代替

  • 太陽光発電(PV)、蓄電池、ミニ・マイクロコンバインド発電などの分散型電源


アクセンチュアは、エネルギー技術の潜在的な影響に関する3つのシナリオを特定しました。本調査を通じて、公益事業者が今後の電力供給環境における新しい役割を見出すための示唆を提供します。

Now in its second year, the Accenture Digitally Enabled Grid research program provides insights and recommendations around challenges and opportunities utilities face along the path to a smarter grid—including views from utilities executives around the world.

In 2014, Accenture is exploring how new disruptive energy technologies will increasingly disturb network costs and performance, and existing business models.

Accenture analysis, based on extensive modelling and a survey of global utilities executives, estimates that energy demand could be reduced by more than 15 percent due to new energy technologies by 2025.

Find out more.

 

Download the executive summaryClick here to download the full article. How can utilities survive energy demand disruption? This opens a new window..

背景

Continued adoption of energy demand-disrupting technologies could drive down utilities’ revenues by between $18 billion and $48 billion a year in the United States, and €39 billion to €61 billion a year in Europe by 2025, according to the latest Accenture research.

In the face of such losses, utilities executives are under pressure to effectively manage the transition to a digital grid. Accenture believes that with the appropriate plan and effective monitoring and control, utilities can balance investment with an opportunity to establish a more cost-effective, optimized grid.

Our research shows demand could be disrupted as a result of changes in:

  • Energy conservation and demand response

  • Energy efficiency through insulation and efficient appliances

  • Energy substitution, such as the electrification of vehicles and heating

  • Distributed generation, such as photovoltaics (PV), storage and mini- and micro-combined heat and power.

We define three distinct scenarios, each with a range of potential revenue losses. With these outcomes in mind, we provide actionable insights and recommendations to help utilities chart a path to a new role in the electricity provision landscape.

Our Digitally Enabled Grid research comprises:

Scenario modeling
Accenture developed three scenario models to assess how distributed energy resources, energy efficiency, energy substitution and energy conservation and demand response would impact the network and business models.

We considered five drivers of adoption: regulatory climate, technological innovation, electricity prices, macroeconomic factors and consumer choices.

Executive survey
Accenture conducted an executive survey among utilities executives worldwide involved in the decision-making process for smart grid-related matters in their companies. The survey results are based on questionnaire-led interviews with 85 utilities executives in 20 countries, conducted via telephone in 2014 for Accenture by Kadence.

主な知見

Accenture identified three potential scenarios that could represent the impact of disruptive energy technologies on the industry:

  • Status quo: assumes a steady projection of long-term historic trends in energy demand and electricity price, no major breakthrough on technology costs, withdrawal of subsidies by 2018 and relatively low consumer interest in the uptake of new energy products and services.

  • Demand disruption: caused by a moderate reduction in load, this scenario is a result of the adoption of energy efficiency and distributed generation being possible without subsidies, leading to greater penetration from shifting consumer sentiment, falling technology costs and a moderate rise in electricity prices, especially across Europe.

  • Perfect storm: perhaps closest to the industry phenomenon known as the “utilities death spiral,” whereby an increasing number of consumers migrate off the grid or use it only as back up. This scenario assumes that subsidies continue to the early 2020s, technology costs plummet and electricity prices must rise significantly to cover the subsidy and integration costs, motivating customers to accelerate energy technology deployment. In all, the perfect storm scenario leads to significant load reduction and revenue losses.

According to Accenture analysis, the most likely scenario is demand disruption.

分析

Our research highlights that utilities are at a tipping point of change within the industry.

Some of our key findings include:

  • Continued adoption of new energy technologies could disrupt demand and drive down utilities’ revenues by tens of billions of dollars by 2025.

  • The risk to electricity demand is not from customers moving off-grid; but from the combined effects of exported distributed generation output, conservation and efficiency actions.

  • By 2015 solar PV will be at grid parity—equal to or less than the cost of power purchased from the grid—across Australia, many states in the United States and several European member states.

  • Electrification of space heating and transportation provide longer-term growth potential for electricity demand, but there are substantial uncertainties over their timing.

  • In the past year, utilities executives have become more concerned about the impact of some technology-driven changes to utility network economics and performance, as well as the potential for new competition.

Trends Toward A Digital Grid: A Year-Over-Year Review of Utilities Executives’ Opinions

Explore utilities executives’ opinions on the complexity, cost implications and opportunities of the digitally enabled grid.

Read More.

アクセンチュアは、エネルギー技術の潜在的な影響に関する3つのシナリオを特定しました。


  • 現状維持:エネルギー需要と電力価格の長期トレンドであり、技術コスト面で大きな変化が見られない。2018年までに補助金が撤廃される。新エネルギー関連製品とサービスに対する消費者の関心が低い

  • 需要の変化:電力需要の緩やかな減少である。エネルギーの効率化と補助金の支援がない中での分散型電源の普及の可能性がある。特にEU加盟国において消費者心理の変化による普及率の上昇、技術コストの低下、電力価格の緩やかな上昇が起きる

  • 需要の激変(破壊的影響):多くの消費者が系統から完全に離脱するか、バックアップとしての需要のみ存在する。この需要の激変(破壊的影響)シナリオは、補助金が2020年代初頭まで継続し、技術コストの急落、補助金と統合コストの補填のための電力価格の上昇、かつ顧客によるエネルギー技術の導入の加速が起きると仮定している。大幅な負荷の低減と収益の減少に至る


アクセンチュアの分析によると、実際に生じる可能性が最も高いのは、「需要の変化」シナリオです。

Supporting Insights

About The Digitally Enabled Grid

Accenture's Digitally Enabled Grid program provides actionable insights and recommendations around the challenges and opportunities utilities face along the path to a smarter grid.

Drawing upon primary research insights from utilities executives around the world as well as Accenture analysis, The Digitally Enabled Grid examines how utilities executives expect smart grid technologies and solutions to contribute to their future networks.

提言

アクセンチュアは、次の施策によって、公益事業者がこの差し迫った需要の変化を乗り切ることができると確信しています。

  • 規制当局と共に、新たな料金体系の適用、サービスを提供する新たな市場の開拓、そして補助金制度を創設し、配電事業の長期的な存続を確保する新しいモデルを確立させる

  • 系統の最適化に向けた投資を行い、供給の信頼性を向上させ、収益力を強化する。具体的には系統のリアルタイム管理改善に向けた自動化、センサー設置、およびリアルタイム分析機能の整備などが挙げられる。消費者により一層柔軟なエネルギー使用を奨励するための高度なデマンドレスポンス・ソリューションも含まれる


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