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Forecaster Gas: Accurately forecast the short-term demand for natural gas with advanced analytics applications

Forecaster Gas is the application designed to meet the needs of short-term forecasting for the gas market.

Overview

The natural gas market requires accurate forecasts because of tight regulations that compel National Gas Pipeline users to provide a daily schedule of the withdrawals for each point of delivery to the network operator. An error in these estimates causes significant imbalanced costs.

Each delivery point has different profiles and different temperature sensitivity, due to the household/industrial mix of customers below the delivery point. Large industrial customers, directly connected to the transport network or power plants, are extreme examples of completely industrial profiles. Every profile and any shift in customer portfolio composition must be taken into account because inaccuracies produce unbalancing costs, market risk exposure and negatively affect other areas of the gas shipping activity, such as storage or liquefied natural gas (LNG) management.

Forecaster automatically provides daily forecasts and monthly programs for each network point. It also updates a wide range of indicators for ongoing performance monitoring and operating by exceptions only on points that do not perform in an optimal way.

Specific Services

Forecaster Gas is designed to meet the forecasting needs of the gas market. It provides daily withdrawal estimates and monthly planning per point of delivery, and offers a full range of functions, graphics and indicators for a valid and simple management of the forecasting process. We analyze time series at any level, starting from the customer, up to significant aggregates that are completely under the user’s control.

The system offers a full range of statistical methods, including highly market-specific forecasting methods, such as authority profiles and non-daily metered algorithms. The user has automated support throughout the process, from customer data acquisition, through measurement/weather data processing and the assignment of forecasting logics, up to the production and deployment of the forecasting outcomes.

Key features

  • State-of-the-art statistical forecasting methods

  • Statistical KPIs

  • Automated modeling

  • Stepwise selection, self-identification

  • Modeling logic based on meter clustering

  • KPI-driven intervention strategy

  • KPI for accuracy assessment

  • Alerts

  • Automatic building of weather and calendar driver

  • NDM treatment

  • Modeling for direct TSO customers

Why Accenture

Logistics applications are built within the scalable Accenture Insights Platform that provides fast and easy access to an array of industry and functional applications that bolt on to the platform, allowing quicker time to market and more rapid results for clients.

Clients also access our wide range of capabilities rooted in:

  • Industry knowledge. The validity of our advanced analytics outcomes is underpinned by our deep knowledge of the sector.

  • Business. Applications are designed for business users and focused on business results, minimizing advanced analytics complexity. Getting to accurate outcomes does not require statistical, mathematical or IT knowledge—just business know-how.

  • Flexibility. Applications are based on a framework that can be easily integrated in an enterprise operational environment to drive business process action.