September 2008
There was a time when predicting future trends was a fairly risk-free proposition. When change occurred at a much more leisurely pace, forecasters could take the long view with little fear of accountability, comfortable in the notion that, as John Maynard Keynes put it, “In the long run, we are all dead.”
Trend spotting is far trickier these days, of course. And being unprepared for the future carries a much higher price. The velocity of change—fueled by information technology and the myriad forces of globalization—is such that assumptions underlying any forecast can collapse in a matter of months (witness the fallout from runaway oil prices), while the distance between today and tomorrow becomes shorter and shorter.
Yet whether art, science or highly informed guesswork (or, more typically, a mixture of all three), the ability to anticipate, understand and decisively act on important trends taking shape just beyond the horizon remains essential for any organization seeking to achieve high performance.
With these two considerations in mind—that accurate trend spotting is critical to business decision making but that the volatility inherent in a multi-polar world makes forecasting subject to continuous revision—Accenture’s top business, technology and industry thinkers and practitioners gathered virtually for a week earlier this year to discuss their views of the future and identify emerging trends.
It was, in fact, an encore performance: Accenture first undertook this exercise two years ago. Both efforts resulted in Outlook articles—“Making the trend your friend” (May 2006), which analyzed 10 global trends, and “Back to the future,” (in this September 2008 issue) which similarly prescribes action plans, or “business imperatives,” for 14 newly identified trends.
Comparing the two lists is almost as instructive as the lists themselves. “A number of the trends discussed two years ago are still highly relevant, but each with a new twist,” notes Karen Crennan, a Milan-based senior executive in Accenture’s Growth & Strategy group who co-authored both articles.
For example, an important trend identified by the team in 2006 was the ascendancy of major emerging economies. Two years later, five new trends are reshaping the business landscape as direct consequences of this older trend: the scarcity of resources; new sources of capital; the growing clout of developing economy multinationals; a new consumerism; and the strain on infrastructure.
Another of the article’s authors, Paul Nunes, an executive research fellow at Accenture’s Institute for High Performance Business, notes that while some of the new trends have evolved naturally from prior ones, others have been driven by the relentless acceleration of change: “The new focus on sustainability and the increasing use of ‘all-shoring’ show us just how quickly the imperatives and priorities for business can change.”
As for how effectively companies respond and for how long that will need to last, “time will tell,” concludes Crennan. “But time will also favor those prepared for all possible outcomes.”
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