RESEARCH REPORT
Cruising back to growth in commercial aerospace
5-minute read
May 17, 2024
In brief
- Commercial aerospace is poised for a landmark year, surpassing 2019 revenues by almost 11%.
- Aviation saw revenue passenger kilometers rise by 36.9% globally, with a further 9.8% increase projected for 2024.
- Supply chain challenges persist, but 79% of executives are now confident that their supply chain is able to deliver on time and on quality over the next six months.
- 55% of executives report that they are still relying on manual processes for supply chain monitoring and risk management.
2024 looks like it will be a landmark year for the commercial aerospace industry. It is set to exceed the previous peak in revenues achieved in 2019 before the pandemic struck. Overall, the industry reports growing optimism throughout, with revenues rising for manufacturers, airlines and MROs. Across the board, performance and projections for revenue and orders point to a resurging sector that’s re-established its growth trajectory, with more aircraft flying more people than ever.
But persistent supply chain issues continue to serve as something of a brake on growth, with suppliers often unable to keep pace with rising demand. Despite this, executives express growing confidence that their supply chains will be able to deliver on time and at the right level of quality over the next six months.
11%
Commercial aerospace is poised for a landmark year, surpassing 2019 revenues by almost 11%.1
79%
Supply chain challenges persist, but 79% executives are now confident that their supply chain is able to deliver on time and on quality over the next six months.2
55%
of executives report that they are still relying on manual processes for supply chain monitoring and risk management.3
Aerospace deliveries reach new records
2023 saw significant increases in deliveries of commercial aircraft, and the trend is expected to continue into 2024, with higher deliveries of both narrow-body and wide-body models. Airbus increased deliveries by 11% and Boeing by 10%, with Embraer achieving a 13% year-on-year increase. However, quality issues may exert some drag on increased production in 2024, and it remains to be seen what the overall impact of this might be for the year.
Airlines soaring back up
Airlines returned to profitability in 2023, and 2024 looks set to see even higher performance across every region, with a 10% rise in year-on-year profits predicted for the sector. In Asia Pacific, the return to growth was particularly marked. The region recorded a 126% increase in international traffic compared with the previous year. Overall, aviation has surpassed its pre-pandemic peak.
MRO swinging into record growth
2024 will see the global commercial aircraft fleet exceed all previous records, creating strong and rising demand for MRO services. Rising passenger numbers and fewer aircraft retirements will further add fuel to MRO growth. The sector is expected to achieve revenues in 2024 that are 20% above their previous peak in 2019.
Supply chain challenges persist
While executives expressed increased confidence in their supply chain's ability to deliver on time over the next six months, some persistent challenges remain. These are likely to affect production in 2024 and beyond. Greater use of digital tools, such as digital twins, is urgently required to improve supply chain oversight and risk management. Yet only 6% are using AI and advanced analytics. 55% of executives say that they are still relying on manual processes for risk management and operational management strategies.
What keeps aerospace executives awake at night?
As geopolitical tensions rise, so does executives’ degree of concern about the impact of political instability on the industry over the next 12 months and beyond. And while economic conditions remain at the same level of concern for the year ahead, executives expect these to become worse in the longer term.
Executive geopolitical risk concern levels
(versus last year)
About the Accenture Commercial Aerospace Market Insight Report
Combining sophisticated econometric modeling methodologies to drive quantitative quarterly forecasts on the health of the commercial aviation market, with insights from leading aerospace executives worldwide, the Accenture Commercial Aerospace Insight Report provides a unique perspective on short- and medium-term trends and drivers in this market, covering a wide range of activities, from suppliers to MROs.