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The Future of IPTV: Confidence Rising


Posted at Apr. 09, 2007 03:06 PM CST
 
Posted by Ray Dogra, Senior Executive, IP Video Lead
 

Is the world ready for IPTV – the delivery of television and video services over Internet Protocol technologies? Well, yes and no.

"No," in that very few decision makers in the communications industry believe that IPTV is going to be a big revenue generator in, say, the next 12 months.

But also "Yes," in that those same decision makers are a lot more confident in IPTV's longer-term prospects – over the next three years or so.

 

These are consistent findings in two surveys we've conducted on executive-level confidence in the future of IPTV. Together with the Economist Intelligence Unit, we asked 300+ executives of communications, high-tech and media firms who are involved in or close to the IPTV business about their confidence in both the short-term and long-term prospects of IPTV. (See the latest issue of the Accenture IPTV Monitor).

 

More than 52 percent of those surveyed are "not confident" or "not at all confident" in the ability of IPTV to generate significant revenues in the next year. But the confidence level rises considerably when we look over a three-year horizon. In fact, more than 60 percent of those executives are confident or very confident that IPTV will generate significant revenues in the next three years.

 

Industry analysts are also optimistic. A recent Informa report predicts that the IPTV market will be worth $12.2 billion worldwide by 2011. Rapid growth, says the report, will result in 36 million IPTV homes by 2011 – or around seven times more than the 2006 figure. Another report predicts 65 million IPTV subscribers by 2010. As always, you need to consider the timing of these projections, and weigh them against the actual pace of rollouts … but the underlying message that IPTV – and more broadly, "IP Video" – is picking up pace seems consistent.

 

Enough "buzz" has been generated about IPTV to merit an awards program … always an encouraging sign. The "IPTV World Series Awards" were recently handed out at the 2007 IPTV World Forum.

 

What are the biggest obstacles to IPTV growth? Well, to be frank it's us. OK, not all of us, of course, but us, as in "consumers in general." Too few understand the basic value of IPTV. Only 11 percent of the executives we surveyed think that consumers' understanding of the IPTV value proposition is high enough to support a solid business case. A consumer readiness survey conducted by Accenture last year also underscored that challenge: widespread confusion exists among consumers about what IPTV is and what its value will be.

 

So what's to be done? Companies that want to get in on the early days of IPTV need to act now, learning to walk before they run. A good way to start might be to launch a familiar and basic broadcast digital TV service. Don't necessarily worry about the glitzy things such as interactive services. But do find ways which make the experience more "Internet like" than just a "me too" TV service.

 

If companies can create sparks of interest among consumers, and a compelling bundle – and back it up with high-quality, reliable transmission and superior customer service – there's a good chance that the "tipping point" for IPTV might come much faster.

 

There, is after all, a lot to like when it comes to IPTV. The value of IPTV is not just getting television services in a new way. It's not just the different "pipe" that matters.

 

IPTV is really about taking the intimacy of the Web and combining it with the impact of TV – for example, taking the search capabilities we're used to on the Web and moving those into the realm of home entertainment. Imagine on-demand television on steroids. Imagine searching the Web for any television or movie programming you want – anything ever made. I can guarantee that your grandchildren will someday look back on the fact that you watched your favorite TV programs at certain hours and on certain days as a very quaint thing.

 

A certain degree of caution is a good thing right now as providers look to plot their IPTV strategies. But they shouldn't wait very long. There's a lot to like about IPTV, and good reason to feel the confidence rising.

 
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