Managing the Unknown—Energy in a Fragile World

Accenture has developed four scenarios to help energy companies plan for economic and political change.

Global change is nothing new, but current events are raising business uncertainty to new levels and energy companies are particularly vulnerable to geopolitical risks. Crafting the right strategy depends on reading the economic and socio-political situation correctly. To assist energy companies to craft better mechanisms and strategies, Accenture has developed four broad but radically different scenarios for the global economic and political landscape, covering the near, medium and long terms.

The four scenarios are:

• Common Ground. An economically integrated, highly collaborative world.
  
  
• Survival of the Fittest. A Darwinian world of free markets and intense competition.
  
  
• Tempestuous Times. A world in which economic integration comes at the cost of growing conflict and tension between governments, and between business and society.
  
  
• Worlds Apart. A reversal of globalization into protectionism and nationalism.

No one can be certain which of these futures may emerge—in reality, we are likely to see elements of all of these scenarios in one form or another. Our analysis highlights a number of strategies and tactics that energy companies can implement to survive and prosper, no matter what the future may hold.

• Harness existing knowledge and market experience.
• Make use of strategic options.
• Build relationships across different geographies and sectors.
• Create an entrepreneurial workforce.
• Exist globally and locally.